[Dr Watson]

Right chaps. In a total and non-inflammatory way we have two matches to go.

All Blacks I think will have it over the Boks in Dunedin this weekend, just. Although the Boks have consistently surprised this season and last and I would not want to bet too much money on this...

[Drambuie_man]

No money? You wuss!

Not to sure how the betting line goes in rugby, but based on what I saw on the Boks, I would take those odds/points.

[Dr Watson]

I know. A fortnight back I bet GBP100 on the All Blacks defeating the Boks and they bloody well lost. In Cape Town too! Since then I have realised I have this ability to make the All Blacks lose: if I bet on them, they're toast. Or do I?

The prescient question is how much applesauce will pay me NOT to bet cash on the All Blacks winning?

[Drambuie_man]

Seriously how does the betting line go in Rugby, is it a odds or points (say "All Blacks by 15 to win"). Futher can you bet the over/under (total amount of points). On second though perhaps I should just shut up and be the silent fan I always was, after all real football starts up in a couple weeks

As for applesauces actions...wasnt that in Noel Coward play?

[Dr Watson]

Depends on the bookie, Dram. Ladbrokes are mine and they are offering match betting as follows:
New Zealand 1.22
South Africa 4.00
Draw 21.00
So they clearly reckon that NZL are going to ace it. This means if you put GBP100 down you will get back GBP122 if New Zealand win - not too bad to get a 22% return in one day but unfortunately you can't put a stop-loss order - or you will quadruple your money if South Africa win. The odds on that are too long to be serious.

Handicap betting is as follows:
New Zealand (-10) 1.90
South Africa (+10) 1.90
Tie 15.00
This means if New Zealand win by 10 or more you get GBP190 back from a GBP100 bet. Clearly a better return but I don't know if I like that. Too much of a stretch. Most 3N matches are within a few points these days unless one team is really pants - ie, Australia or New Zealand in a world cup year.

You can also bet on half-time/full-time or first try-scorer but that's pointless, in my view. You just can't win on those stuff. Too many variables.

[Drambuie_man]

DrBS> Thanks for the primer. Interesting dual system. Final comment on the issue, its not too hard for choosing total points in a NFL game. However in retrospect I can agree that it would be hopless in a rugby match due to the fluidity of the game.

[Dr Watson]

Indeed.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken your last post contained only one grammatical error and no spelling errors. Standards man. You have a reputation to uphold you know.

[PDLM]

I would quite happily put HK$1000 on South Africa at 4/1 given the way their defence has stood up so far. Depends a bit on the ref though and how much he calls them offside.

In fact 21/1 on the draw looks like pretty good odds too.

[Moriarty]

I'd bet on the boks against the Wals anytime.]

COME ON SOUTH AFRICA!

[Dr Watson]

PDLM> Indeed you'd have to wonder whether the Boks can do it, despite having never won in Dunedin since the 1920s. Decisions, decisions...

The ref? Yes, now that's always of interest when NZ are playing. The ref this weekend is from France, Joel Jutge, who also reffed the Lions-NZ first test in the summer. Prima facie this will favour the Boks as their rush defence and bruising tackles are closer to the more physical NH rugby with which Jutge has association. NH refs also tend not to like the NZ, *cough*, gamesmanship and will be minded to ping them for that, but only when it is possible within his stats allowance of penalties.

When Jutge reffed the Lions-NZ match earlier this summer, the penalty count was 8 to the Lions and 10 to NZ, and for the whole Lions tour the penalty count was 55% against the NZ sides. In my view this was a deal behind the scenes brokered between the IRB, NZL and the Lions, based on historical problems with reffing in NZ. However NZL will expect some payback for this compromise. Jutge will therefore be under some pressure, behind the scenes of course, to even matters out. I think, therefore, the ref effect will be at best a very slim help to the Boks and there will be prominent decisions in favour of the ABs.

As to putting money on a draw? You're a braver man than me! If memory serves there has been one draw only in the history of the 3N and international rugby rarely sees draws anyway.