[KnowItAll]

Curious, what to you, the arm chair pundit, think of Obama's chances of winning against the Republican candidate McCain?

Can an inexperienced black man who seems to have the giddy optimists supporting him blindly, win against a party that will undoubtedly take off their gloves as soon as (assuming Clinton does not pull a last minute deal and take the nomination) is declared nominee?

[aussiegal]

I hope not. It's ridiculous seeing the 'hollywood' effect that has helped Obama this far already. The only thing going for Obama in my books is that he's not Hillary Clinton. I hope America sees the light and realises you can't put someone with no real experience in as President.

That's the problem with hope, it leads people to consider improbable scenarios (or people in this case) as a way out of their problems.

[jimbo]

Originally Posted by aussiegal

I hope America sees the light and realises you can't put someone with no real experience in as President.

Well they already voted in dubya twice didn't they?

[thromsturmond]

Can Obama win? Certainly. I still give McCain the potential for a Howard Dean-ish freakout/meltdown moment at some point. And really, after 20 years of either a Bush or a Clinton running the country, I would cherish the thought of some new thought in the executive office, not just a stay-the-course mentality.

[KnowItAll]

So, really it is establishment fatigue and change for the sake of change thats driving this election?

[chimo]

I don't understand why everyone wants Clinton to quit the race. Stupid Democrats should learn to pick the candidate who can most win the election. Yes Obama has more delagates, but most of his wins came in redneck/NASCAR/bible-belt states that will NEVER vote Democrat (South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Utah, Louisiana , Nebraska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, etc...). Meanwhile, Clinton has won important/swing states (Nevada, Florida, Arizona, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana).

Silly Democrats, you have to win the swing states to win the election. Who cares who is the better candidate. You can't win the general election without Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[KnowItAll]

>> Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

And California?

[chimo]

I think California is a safe state for the Democrats. However, Latino voters don't like Obama so who knows what might happen. That's another negative for Obama: Latinos/Asians prefer Clinton by a large margin. (It can be argued that the Latino vote helped Bush win in 2000).

[Sleuth]

I think Obama's problems with Latinos puts CA in play this year.
At the very least, Obama will have to defend it. If McCain wins CA, some of thos eother swing states won't matter as much.
But Obama can beat McCain. Here are some ways:
(1) The conservative base, which isn't thrilled with McCain, fails to vote. That leaves McCain with just right of center types and independents. Be hard to win that way, especially since Obama does well with certain aspects of the independents. With Hillary out of the picture, this is a possibility.
(2) Obama convinces Hillary's voters to back him.
(3) McCain suffers a break down; apparently he has this temper issue sometimes.
(4) The vote is for something new and different, rather than the usual.
However, given the Dems obvious nomination problems and the surprise McCain win, the election will be closer than originally thought.

[Crocodile]

Originally Posted by aussiegal

I hope not. It's ridiculous seeing the 'hollywood' effect that has helped Obama this far already. The only thing going for Obama in my books is that he's not Hillary Clinton. I hope America sees the light and realises you can't put someone with no real experience in as President.

That's the problem with hope, it leads people to consider improbable scenarios (or people in this case) as a way out of their problems.

Then I can only guess that you didn't vote for Kevin Rudd in Australia. The ONLY reason he was voted in was because he talked on FM radio and he wasn't John Howard.