[pinko]

I have spent 2 years in HK, and now my landlord wants to sell the property. I can buy his (which I don't really like) or other flats. The problem is, the price of flats in the area where I want to buy (Ma On Shan) have gone by 15-20% or so during the last 6 month, and 30-50% or in the last 3 years.

The mortgage is low now, so this isn't really a problem, but I am planning to stay in HK for another 2 to 4 years maximum. If the price of properties will drop by 30-50% in the next 2 to 4 years I am going to lose all the money I can set aside during these years.

What do you reckon is going to be the medium (2-4 years) trend in housing prices? I am looking for a cheapish property, around 3.5 to 4 million for a 800 square feet flat.

Thanks a lot.

[wtbhotia]

i have heard from a lot of people that the property market will start to drop by the end of this year. it has risen so much that the bubble is about to burst again. Is this true or not, its up to you to decide.

[pinko]

By how much do people expect it to go down?

Often these things are self-fulfilling prophecies...

I just calculated that if it goes down by 20% over the next 3-4 years it won't make much difference if I buy or rent. The advantage of buying of course being that I don't have to move (and house hunting) again in 12 months.

[walkup]

If you buy you will be financially over-committed. Stay liquid. Only purchase if you find either 'something special' or you see a longer term commitment to Hong Kong residency.

[chimo]

If you plan to leave HK in 2-4 years, then just keep renting.

1. Ma On Shan might be hard to re-sell.

2. Assume the property is worth 4M. Don't think this is what you have to pay:
Sale and purchase agreement= 2,000
Assignment deed= 25,000
Mortgage deed= 19,000
Government stamp duty= 90,000
Property agent= 40,000
= HK$176,000 lost

Then when you re-sell, you will have to pay property agent, lawyer, and goverment stamp again!

3. Will you take a mortage? Again, you will lose a bit on interest.

4. You will have to pay property tax, management fees....

For 2-4 years it is really not worth buying. Take that 1M cash and invest it.

[pinko]

Thanks, I didn't think of the additional costs when I sell the property. Really I have to pay the Government stamp duty again??

Also, property tax? How much is that? And don't I pay a bit less taxes because I have the huge mortgage (I was thinking of 95% of 3.7 millions...).

Ma On Shan is not difficult to sell, though of course the price might drop.

[Lammarite]

Originally Posted by chimo

Then when you re-sell, you will have to pay property agent [snip] and goverment stamp again!

Say what??

[chimo]

Thanks for correcting me. Anyways my point was that there are always going to be extra costs when buying. For 2-4 years these costs will make it not worth to buy.

[pinko]

So what will I have to pay again?

Assignment deed?
Mortgage deed?
Government stamp duty?

Property agent: yes, I know I will have to pay this one.

[Alby]

Originally Posted by pinko

Ma On Shan is not difficult to sell, though of course the price might drop.

How does one evaluate if a property is difficult to resell?