[shri]

I would like to question the mortality rate that the government is publishing and add to the panic in Hong Kong.

1190 people admitted
400+ of them are in ICU

Now only 229 have been released which means that roughtly 20 percent have been cured.

47 people have died. That means roughly 20% of those who have left the hospital have left in a body bag.

I am no statistician, but I do belive, if you're in hospital and in ICU you're not cured and potentially on your deathbed.

How can the govt now arrive at a figure of 4% mortality? The mortality can only be calculated based on the number of people being released.

Time to panic folks! The sky is falling!

[shri]

Paul / Rest,

Sorry .. the figure is 40% of all ICU beds are occupied by SARS victims. Not 40% of the SARS victims are in ICU.

At present, there are a total of 293 ICU beds in all public hospitals. As of yesterday, 122 of these were being used by viral pneumonia patients.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thesta...253&intcatid=1

April 15th

[vivek]

"The problem is that cases are reported when the patient presents with symptoms, but the patient does not die straight away. It is likely from all reports that those patients that will die, do so between one and three weeks after they go to hospital. Which means that the death rate should not be calculated by dividing the number dead by the number of cases now, but by dividing the number dead by the number of cases one or two weeks ago. If the time is one week on average then the rate should be taken as 6.4% and if it is two weeks, then the death rate is 9%. Of course, if the average time from being classified as a SARS patient till death is longer than two weeks, then the fatality rates get even higher."
...
Estimate C – The fatality rate of SARS, in Hong Kong, is 4.5-18%

http://agonist.got.net/cgi-bin/yabb/...num=1050500426

[neerajarora]

Shri,

As It seems U r pressing the panic button, I will like to bring certain more facts to light to pacify the things. I had already pointed before that Mortality rate is much higher than reported. Also said Its time to leave if u have that option.

Population of HK: 6,900,000
People Infected /Day: 40 app
At Present Rate(In HK ):
Chances of Getting Infected/Day: 40 / 6,900,000 = 1 in 172,500
Chances of Getting Infected/Month:40*30/6,900,000 = 1 in 5750
For Year at the same Rate Its app 1 in 500.

Though Its too raw to think that the rate of spreading will be same. Anyway just stated some facts as food for thought.

[shri]

There was a certain amount of sarcasm when I asked everyone to panic.

[vivek]

_now_ you tell me !

[shri]

Vindication!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2992749.stm

The World Health Organization (WHO) initially estimated that the death rate from the virus was 5%.

But the new study - the first to be based on a statistically sound sample of 1,425 cases - puts the death rate at one in five (20%).

The death rate is more than 40% for patients aged 60 or over - but just 13% for those under 60.

[hk_expat]

Does that mean C-U-IN-I-C-U?

[shri]

The ICU mortality rates are extremely high.

I think if you have SARS and are in ICU, might as well start making amends with your maker for your past sins.

The stories one reads about in the media are extremely sad. People have to say their last farewells over phone, caskets are sealed... heart wrenching.